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Dr. David Goodstein, Professor of Physics and Vice Provost, California Institute of Technology
the days of "Peak Oil" draw nigh
As Caltech Vice Provost and Professor of Physics David Goodstein points out in the video interview below, the day is not far off when global oil production will peak, signaling the "end of the age of oil" and intensifying any number of dire consequences, some of which might be made less calamitous depending on how soon mankind realizes what lies ahead and takes prudent steps to mitigate this disaster.
would higher or lower gas prices now and going forward be better for the planet and its inhabitants?
As with most controversial public issues, there are people on both sides of the question.
some people and groups want stable or lower oil prices
California State Treasurer and Democratic Party candidate for Governor Phil Angelides is an enemy of high oil prices. Two days ago, on July 20, 2006, at a news conference called to announce his strong support for Proposition 87, the "
Clean Alternative Energy/$4 Billion Oil Tax" initiative on the November ballot, Treasurer Angelides attacked what he called
"profiteering from scheming energy companies" and said:
"The average price of premium gasoline in California today is a whopping $3.55 per gallon, and experts say it may top $4 per gallon in the next few weeks," Angelides said. "California's working families--and our fragile economy--are feeling the economic pain of skyrocketing energy prices. That's why we need both protection from price-gouging today, and an opportunity to move beyond the oil economy in the future."
On May 11, 2004, CBS television personality David Letterman offered a list of
"Top Ten Ways Dumb Guys Would Lower Gas Prices," including:
10. Sell gas by the half-gallon
9. Sneak up to gas stations in the middle of the night and switch the price numbers
5. Build time machine, drive back to 1965 when gas was cheap.
3. Release the recipe so people can make their own
2. Drive really fast so you're not driving so long
1. Invade Iraq
some people and groups want higher oil prices
Some people believe it would make sense to raise the price of gas through higher gas taxes.
In an op-ed piece in
Business Week on August 19, 2005, entitled
"Higher Gas Tax? Smart Move," by Chris Farrell, a contributing economics editor for
BusinessWeek and a frequent guest on Minnesota Public Radio's nationally syndicated finance program,
Marketplace Money, Mr. Farrell writes:
"Why wait? A gas tax is efficient. High pump prices are already dampening consumer demand for gas-guzzling SUVs and spurring sales of fuel-thrifty hybrids such as the Toyota Prius.
"One reason for embracing a tax over, say, tightening the Corporate Automobile Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards is that a tax unleashes the power of the market rather than relying on bureaucratic rulemaking….
"Perhaps more important than economic efficiency: The incentive higher taxes could give to technological innovation. A steep gas price will make consumers far more likely to try biodiesel and plug-in hybrids that until recently haven't been price-competitive. It can also spur inventors to come up with ever more energy-frugal devices. Taken together, the price for technological innovation will fall as the market for alternatives technologies grow."
some people want higher gas taxes AND more attention to be paid to the issue of "peak oil"
"Prof. Goose" and others at
The Oil Drum—Discussions about Energy and Our Future want people to think more about "peak oil," the theme of Dr. Goodstein's book:
"We all see the petroleum economy as the fundamental linchpin of our present democratic society. As cheap oil/energy/gas quietly fades into history, lives around the world will indeed change.
"This real and tangible crisis of supply and demand is now inevitable. Whether the coming crisis arrives in six months or in four years, whether the crisis arrives in a slow, secular fashion or as a cataclysmic "shock," our purpose is the same: we are here to raise awareness of the reality of the current problem and to attempt to address the real issues that are often hidden by political pandering."
Elsewhere, in
"The First Piece of the Solution as I See It (or, What Can We Actually Do?)," Prof. Goose writes:
"I advocate taxing gasoline now. Abruptly. Quickly. Severely. Better to bend the shit out of the economy now than completely break it later."
Also along the lines of spurring innovation by raising gas prices is an item from
The Huffington Post, dated July 11, 2006, posted as a comment to Vinod Khosla's
pitch for support of his
California Proposition 87, a $4 billion oil severance tax and "clean alternative energy" funding plan (you'll need to scroll down to find it):
"If you really want to do something constructive, place a 10% extraction fee on oil and give a dollar for dollar tax credit to businesses and individuals for the purchase and installation of American made solar panels. Eventually, the state of California would be covered in solar panels. On a national basis, impose a twenty dollar per barrel fee on imported oil and a similar fee on domestic oil. Offer tax credits to domestic producers for investments in non carbon based renewable energy. Offer tax credits to businesses and individuals for solar energy with monies from the import fees."
Another
Huffington Post poster commenting on Mr. Khosla's proposal is Robert Rapier, author of the April 5, 2006, piece
"Peak Oil: End of the World?" and someone who is skeptical about the legendary Silicon Valley entrepreneur and venture capitalist's belief that ethanol can offer a significant contribution to solving the energy crisis.
Mr. Rapier concludes
his comment (scroll down to find it) on
The Huffington Post by saying:
"If Khosla wants to expose his arguments to some criticism, I would be happy to debate him over his ethanol positions or his clean energy initiative. Regarding ethanol, I will show that his claims aren't supportable. Regarding the clean energy initiative, I will show 1). It will definitely increase gas prices in California, and 2). There are much better options. If Khosla accepts, we can debate here, or at The Oil Drum (http://www.theoildrum.com/). My qualifications are: I am a chemical engineer who has spent many years working on alternative energy, including my graduate school thesis on cellulosic ethanol. Let's debate and let the public decide whether your claims have merit, or whether you have been guilty of making highly exaggerated claims."
"peak oil" concerns go mainstream
It's not just the people at
The Oil Drum and Professor Goodstein who are now talking about "peak oil."
Read
"The end of oil" by Robert B. Semple Jr. in the February 28, 2006, issue of the
New York Times.
Read "Imagine There's no Oil—Scenes from a Liberal Apocalypse," by Bryant Ursadt in the current (August, 2006) issue of
Harper's Magazine.
another party heard from
Perhaps instead of being a harbinger of imminent global catastrophe, the drawdown of oil supplies is really mostly an opportunity to make money. This seems to be the view of "bot_feeder," who
had this to say on the British Petroleum (BP) Yahoo! Finance Chat Board on July 9, 2006:
"Every time I read another book about how the oil is running out soon I'm tempted to buy some more oil stock."
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